Date: 2026-07-28
Industry: Silicon Carbide (SiC) – Substrate・Epitaxy・Power Devices
View: Cautiously Bullish | Confidence: Medium (0.60) | Time Horizon: 12–24 Months
Core Conclusion: The SiC industry has emerged from the "severe oversupply + price collapse" of 2024–2025. In H1 2026, 6-inch substrate prices have more than doubled from their trough, and supply–demand dynamics have narrowed significantly. The acceleration of 800V EV platform adoption and the rise of AI data center power demand constitute dual incremental drivers. However, the sustainability of price recovery is constrained by slowing EV growth, product grade divergence, and ongoing device-side price declines. The industry profit pool is undergoing a structural shift—concentrating from substrates toward device IDMs, though device ASPs are also declining rapidly. Overall, the industry is on an upward cycle, but a "full reversal" narrative should be treated with caution.
Silicon Carbide (SiC) is a third-generation wide bandgap semiconductor material (bandgap 3.26eV, critical electric field 10x that of silicon). Its power devices offer irreplaceable advantages in high-temperature, high-voltage, and high-frequency applications.
One-Sentence Industry Chain Map: High-purity SiC powder → PVT crystal growth (substrate) → epitaxial growth (epiwafer) → chip design/manufacturing (SiC MOSFET/SBD) → packaging modules → end applications (NEV / PV + energy storage / AI power / industrial / rail transit).
Report Coverage Boundary: Conductive (N-type) SiC full value chain, with power devices as the core end market. Semi-insulating SiC (for RF devices / GaN-on-SiC) is not a focus of this report.
Value Distribution by Segment:
| Segment | % of Device Cost | Core Barrier | Current Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Substrate | ~47% | PVT crystal growth know-how (>2200°C), defect control | Prices rebounded from trough; quality differentiation widening |
| Epitaxy | ~15% | Thickness/doping uniformity, defect control | Following substrate trend; 8-inch is incremental |
| Device Design & Manufacturing | ~30% | Automotive qualification (AEC-Q101), customer lock-in, yield | Profit center, IDM-led |
| Packaging Module | ~8% | Thermal design, reliability | Following device side |
Source: Yole Group (Power SiC 2025/2026); TrendForce
The global SiC power device market was approximately $3.9 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $10 billion by 2029 (including SBD+MOSFET bare die/discrete/module), implying a CAGR of ~20.7% (Yole Group, Power SiC 2026).
| Year | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Device Market Size ($B) | ~3.9 | ~4.7 | ~5.5 | ~6.5 | ~10.0 |
Source: Yole Group / Electronics Weekly (June 2026), https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/power-sic-market-growing-at-20-cagr-2025-31-to-11bn-2026-06/
Growth Assessment: At PCIM 2026 in June, Yole confirmed that near-term SiC growth has dropped sharply from the previous ~40% to approximately 12% (transition period 2025–2026), but mid-term growth is expected to recover to ~20% driven by accelerated 800V EV penetration and AI data center demand. The target for SiC to account for 30% of power semiconductors has been pushed back from 2028 to 2030.
Source: PCIM Magazine 2026, https://pcim.mesago.com/nuernberg/en/pcim-insights/pcim-magazine/power-sic-growth-picks-up-pace-driven-by-auto-industrial-and-ai.html
| Application | 2024 Share | 2024 Size | 2029E Size | CAGR | Growth Logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV (traction inverter + OBC + DC-DC) | ~62% | ~$2.4B | ~$5.7B | ~19% | EV production growth × SiC penetration increase × 800V per-vehicle value jump |
| PV + Energy Storage Inverter | ~14% | ~$0.5B | ~$1.5B | ~25% | PV installations growth + SiC penetration from 20% to 40% |
| Charging Infrastructure | ~7% | ~$0.3B | ~$0.8B | ~22% | 350kW+ ultra-fast chargers widely adopting SiC modules |
| Industrial Power/Motor Drive/Rail/Grid | ~14% | ~$0.5B | ~$1.0B | ~15% | Industrial efficiency upgrades + rail SiC traction systems |
| AI Data Center Power (PSU/UPS) | ~3% | ~$0.1B | ~$0.7B | ~48% | AI server power density from 3kW→10-30kW+, PSU evolving toward 800V HVDC |
Source: Yole Group Power SiC 2026; IEA Global EV Outlook 2026, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/executive-summary; TrendForce
Reality Check on AI Data Centers: J.P. Morgan's independent calculation in May 2026 showed that the TAM contribution of AI data centers to SiC devices is approximately $0.4–0.5 billion in 2028 (about 10% of the then-TAM), classified as a "structural plus" rather than a "scale disruptor". Some optimistic market voices claim AI will account for 20–30% of SiC TAM, which appears significantly overestimated. This report's AI forecast already incorporates this conservative assessment—the ~$0.7 billion by 2029 corresponds to about 7% share.
Source: J.P. Morgan SiC industry deep-dive report (May 2026), https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/marketalerts/2026-05-28/doc-inhzmayw8744907.shtml
EV Traction Inverter – Core Driver (~62% Demand Weight):
SiC 车用器件市场 = 全球 BEV/PHEV 产量
× (400V 占比 × 单车 SiC 价值_400V + 800V 占比 × 单车 SiC 价值_800V)
× SiC 在对应电压平台的渗透率
2024 年基准：
= 1,700万辆 × (85% × $175 + 15% × $400) × 25%
= 1,700万 × $209 × 0.25 ≈ $8.9B（含 OBC 等，器件口径偏大）
2029 年基准情景：
= 4,000万辆 × (50% × $200 + 50% × $400) × 45%
= 4,000万 × $300 × 0.45 ≈ $54B（含 OBC，器件口径）
| Key Parameter | 2024A | 2026E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global BEV/PHEV Production (million units) | ~17 | ~22 | ~40 |
| 800V share in BEVs | 15% | ~20% | ~50% |
| SiC penetration in traction inverters | ~25% | ~35% | ~55% |
| 400V per-vehicle SiC value (USD) | ~$175 | ~$185 | ~$200 |
| 800V per-vehicle SiC value (USD) | ~$400 | ~$380 | ~$400 |
Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2026; TrendForce (SiC inverter penetration); Yole Group
AI Data Center Power – Incremental Driver (~3%→7% Demand Weight):
Quantitative chain (qualitative to be quantified – precise AI penetration numbers not disclosed):
SiC AI PSU 市场 = AI 服务器机架出货量 × 单机架功率密度 × SiC 在 PSU 中渗透率 × 单位功率 SiC 价值
关键假设：
- 单机架功率：3kW(2024)→10-30kW(2029)
- SiC 渗透率：<1%(2024)→~15%(2029，Yole 估计)
- 摩根大通测算：1MW HVDC 数据中心 SiC 含量约 $5,000-6,000
- 2028 年 AI DC 新增装机约 80GW × HVDC 渗透率 → $4-5 亿 TAM 贡献
Source: J.P. Morgan SiC industry report (May 2026); Yole Group Power SiC 2026
| Driver | Change ($B) | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| EV traction inverter SiC usage growth | +3.3 | Volume 17M→40M × SiC penetration 25%→55% × 800V share 15%→50% |
| EV OBC/DC-DC | +0.7 | 800V penetration raises per-vehicle OBC SiC content |
| PV + storage inverter | +1.0 | New install CAGR ~10% × SiC penetration 20%→40% |
| Charging piles | +0.5 | 350kW+ ultra-fast chargers 28k→100k+ units |
| AI data center power | +0.6 | From near zero to ~$0.7B/year (incl. J.P. Morgan conservative revision) |
| Industrial/rail/other | +0.5 | Industrial efficiency upgrades + rail SiC traction |
| ASP decline offset | -0.3 | Device ASP declines 8-12% p.a., partly offset by per-vehicle usage increase |
| Net Change | +6.1 | 2024 ~$3.9B → 2029E ~$10.0B |
Source: Based on Yole Group, IEA, TrendForce, J.P. Morgan aggregation
Structural vs. Cyclical: Structural growth accounts for ~85% (long-term EV electrification penetration + irreversible 800V shift + PV energy storage + AI infrastructure), cyclical fluctuations ~15% (EV inventory adjustments, subsidy policy swings). Global EV sales in Q1 2026 were -8% YoY (IEA)—a short-term disruption, while full-year growth is still expected to be 15-20%.
| Year | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand (10k wafers/yr) | 210 | 260 | 350 | 440 | 530 | 610 |
| YoY Growth | — | +24% | +35% | +26% | +20% | +15% |
Source: Based on TrendForce, Yole (device market → wafer conversion); McKinsey wafer demand framework cross-validation
In 2025, global nameplate capacity for conductive 6-inch SiC substrates was ~4.0 million wafers/year, with actual effective capacity (shipments) of ~2.8 million wafers/year (utilization rate ~70%). Nameplate capacity in 2026 is estimated to increase to 5.69 million wafers, but effective supply growth is limited by three factors: Wolfspeed bankruptcy reduction, exit of high-cost European capacity (onsemi Czech layoffs of 200-300 people), and consolidation of inefficient Chinese capacity.
Source: TrendForce; Fuji Keizai; Ringier Industry, https://www.industrysourcing.cn/article/470999
| Metric | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global nameplate capacity (10k wafers/yr, 6-inch equiv.) | ~300 | ~400 | ~569 |
| Global effective capacity (10k wafers/yr) | ~230 | ~280 | ~360 |
| Global composite utilization rate | ~77% | ~70% | ~63% (dragged by Wolfspeed) |
| China top-tier utilization rate | ~70% | ~85% | >90% (SICC/Tankeic full production) |
| China share of global shipments | 38% | 53% | ~55% (E) |
Wolfspeed Bankruptcy Restructuring (filed Chapter 11 June 2025, completed September 2025): Debt reduction of ~70% (~$4.6B), closed Durham 150mm device fab, indefinitely suspended German Saarland project. Post-restructuring FY2026 Q3 materials revenue only $50M (YoY -36%), utilization 20-25%. Global effective supply reduced by ~300k wafers/year.
onsemi European Contraction (June 2026): Cut 200-300 SiC employees at Czech fab; European SiC manufacturing cost $1,200/wafer vs. China $400/wafer; shifting to purchased Chinese substrates.
BIS Export Controls Escalation: In April 2026, added SiC/GaN ion implanters and high-temperature annealing systems to controls; in July 2026, added SiC/GaN testing systems. However, domestic PVT crystal growers have >90% localization, limiting direct impact on substrate segment.
Source: Wolfspeed Q3 FY2026 earnings; U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Federal Register Apr-Jul 2026; Chip Intelligence, https://www.chinaaet.com/article/3000178055
2025 global conductive SiC substrate shipment CR5 ~67%, with top two Chinese players combined ~35%, surpassing Wolfspeed+Coherent's ~24%.
| Rank | Company | 2025 Shipment Share | 2024 Revenue Share | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SICC (Shandong Tianyue Advanced) | 27.6% | 17.1% | Topped global shipments |
| 2 | Wolfspeed | 18% | 33.7% | Share halved, bankruptcy restructuring |
| 3 | ROHM/SiCrystal | 11% | ~8% | Japan supply chain steadily improving |
| 4 | SK Siltron | 7.5% | — | Korean player rising |
| 5 | TankeBlue (Tankeic) | 7.2% | 17.3% | Revenue share declining significantly |
Source: Fuji Keizai (2025 shipments); TrendForce (2024 revenue), https://www.trendforce.cn/presscenter/news/20250512-12573.html
8-inch (200mm) wafer area is 1.78x that of 6-inch, and usable die count increases by approximately 1.87x after accounting for edge utilization improvement. Theoretical per-die cost reduction of 35-50%, but mass production yield and equipment cost are severe constraints.
| Metric | 6-Inch (150mm) | 8-Inch (200mm) |
|---|---|---|
| Mass production maturity | Mature (top-tier yield >60%) | Early stage (global average <40%) |
| Substrate unit price (2026Q2) | ~$500-700/wafer (industrial grade ~RMB 3,500-5,000) | ~$900-1,100/wafer |
| Usable die per wafer (5mm×5mm) | ~448 | ~837 |
| Per-die substrate cost (theoretical) | ~$1.34 | ~$1.08-1.31 |
Source: SICC investor communications; Wolfspeed SEC filing
Yole explicitly stated at PCIM 2026 that "the 8-inch transition has been delayed and will be slower than expected." Wolfspeed's Mohawk Valley 8-inch fab has never reached full capacity since its launch in 2022 (utilization consistently <25%), with equipment underutilization costs soaring—a major contributor to its bankruptcy. The 8-inch cost-reduction thesis has not yet been validated in mass production.
Key 8-inch mass production progress:
Source: Infineon Press, https://www.infineon.com/press-release/2025/infxx202502-055; ST News; PCIM Magazine 2026
| Quartile | Representative Company | C1 Cash Cost ($/wafer, 6-inch equiv.) | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | SICC, TankeBlue | $280-350 | Chinese top-tier, yield >55%, low electricity cost advantage |
| Q2 | Jingsheng Mechanical, Sanan Optoelectronics | $350-450 | Scale still ramping |
| Q3 | Wolfspeed (post-restructuring), ROHM | $500-700 | High overseas cost but Wolfspeed may decline after restructuring |
| Q4 | Coherent, onsemi Czech, small European fabs | $700-1,200 | Facing exit pressure |
Incentive Prices: 6-inch ~$650/wafer (breakeven for new entrants); 8-inch ~$850/wafer.
Source: onsemi management disclosures; Ringier Industry; Silake Industry Technology, https://www.slaker.cn/silicon-carbide-news/345.html
Current Market Prices (July 2026):
Source: Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM), https://hq.smm.cn/semiconductor/content/103993830; Note product grade—spread between industrial and automotive grade is 2.5-3x, not interchangeable
Key Warning: Some market reports confuse product grades—comparing the industrial-grade low point of $200-320 (end-2025) with the automotive-grade or blended average high point of $700 (mid-2026), exaggerating the rebound. On a like-for-like basis, industrial-grade prices rebounded from ~$250 to ~$490-600, still a significant increase (~100-140%) but absolute levels below some reported $700.
| Year | Demand (10k pcs) | Effective Supply (10k pcs) | Surplus/Shortage (10k pcs) | Supply/Demand Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 210 | 230 | +20 | 1.10 |
| 2025A | 260 | 280 | +20 | 1.08 |
| 2026E | 350 | 360 | +10 | 1.03 |
| 2027E | 440 | 470 | +30 | 1.07 |
| 2028E | 530 | 570 | +40 | 1.08 |
| 2029E | 610 | 650 | +40 | 1.07 |
Note on Scope: This table shows the total balance for 6-inch equivalent conductive substrates. The supply/demand ratio narrows from 1.10 in 2024 to 1.03 in 2026, reflecting a significant easing of oversupply. However, aggregate figures mask structural divergence—high-quality automotive-grade substrates are actually tight (lead times >50 weeks), while industrial-grade low-end substrates remain relatively loose.
Source: Demand based on Yole Group device market + wafer conversion; supply based on TrendForce + Fuji Keizai + company announcements. All rows roughly verified: Supply − Demand = Gap.
| Indicator | Current (2026Q2) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Global Overall Utilization Rate | ~63% (Wolfspeed 20-25% severely dragging) | Divergence intensifying |
| China Top Player Utilization Rate | >90% (Tianyue/Tianke at full capacity) | Automotive/high-quality lines at full capacity |
| Full-Chain Inventory | ~1-2 months (normal 3 months) | Low, high-end near zero inventory |
| Inventory Cycle Phase | End of destocking → structural restocking | Automotive-grade restocking, industrial-grade still digesting |
Source: Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network field visits; East Money industry research, https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260607131747784511370. Note: Morgan Stanley Semiconductor Inventory Tracker (July 2026) shows overall semiconductor supply chain inventory still 33 days above historical median; SiC's "low inventory" is structural (automotive tight, industrial loose) rather than broad shortage.
Price Cycle Review:
Source: Silike Industrial Technology; Shanghai Metals Market SMM; company announcements
Price Formation Mechanism: Substrate pricing is shifting from "annual long-term contract lock-in" to "spot + bidding". Automotive-grade materials maintain long-term contracts as the main method (~30-40%, higher for overseas IDMs). Price spread between automotive and industrial grades reaches 2.5-3x, and this gap is widening—structural tightness is concentrated in high-end automotive products.
| Period | 6-inch Industrial | 8-inch | Core Logic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | $500-700/pc | $950-1,100/pc | Restocking peak + AI power supply pull + structural automotive tightness |
| 2026Q4 | $470-630/pc | $900-1,050/pc | Seasonal slowdown, but low inventory limits decline |
| 2027Q1 | $420-580/pc | $880-1,020/pc | Chinese New Year shutdown + overseas procurement slowdown, pullback 5-15% |
| 2027Q2 | $440-600/pc | $900-1,050/pc | EV new model pre-build + AI PSU procurement peak start |
Pricing Framework: Incentive price floor (6-inch ~$650/pc = breakeven for Chinese new entrants) + supply-demand direction (tight 2026H2 → slightly loose 2027H1) + inventory position (low, near-term support). Note: $700+ prices mainly concentrate in high-end automotive products; industrial benchmark in $500-600 range; if using industrial grade metric, price has already fallen back to ~$500, closer to incentive price.
(This section is the headline chapter of the tech hardware playbook—focus on pricing power/profit allocation/barriers/local substitution)
| Segment | CR4/CR3 | Leading Companies | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Substrate (shipments) | CR5 ~67% | Tianyue Advanced 27.6% + Wolfspeed 18% | Chinese companies overtaking, Wolfspeed halved |
| Devices (revenue) | CR3 ~60% | ST ~35% + onsemi ~20% + Infineon ~15% | Big three solid, Chinese device makers ~10% catching up fast |
| Epitaxy (volume) | CR3 ~55% | Hantian Chengcheng >30% (global #1) | One company dominant, but foundry business shrinking |
Source: Fuji Keizai (2025); TrendForce; Yole
Current Profit Distribution Across Segments (2025 estimate):
| Segment | Profit Pool Share | Gross Margin Range | Gross Margin 3 Years Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Substrate | ~15% | -25%~19% | 40-60% | Collapse—Tianke Heda -20%, Tianyue Advanced 17% |
| Epitaxy | ~12% | 18-35% | 35-45% | Shrinking—Hantian Chengcheng from 44.7% to 25.6% |
| Device/IDM | ~60% | 34-46% | 35-45% | Stable with slight decline—ST 34.8%, Infineon ~41% |
| Module/Packaging | ~13% | 14-18% | 15-20% | Stable |
Source: Company financial reports. ST Q2 2026, https://newsroom.st.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/C3403C-Q226-Earnings-PR.pdf; Infineon Q2 FY2026, https://www.infineon.cn/press-release/2026/infxx202605-082; onsemi Q1 2026, https://www.onsemi.com/company/newsroom/news-and-insights/onsemi-reports-first-quarter-2026-results
Profit Pool Shift Direction: From "substrate is king" → "device is king". Within three years, substrate gross margin collapsed from 40-60% to breakeven or loss, with profits accelerating toward device IDMs that have automotive certifications + customer lock-in + scale manufacturing.
But Beware of Scissors Risk: J.P. Morgan estimates show automotive SiC MOSFET prices: 2024 $6.0-6.5 → 2025 $5.0-5.5 → 2026 $3.0-3.5 → 2027 possibly $2.5 (halved in two years). If substrate prices have stabilized and rebounded while device prices continue to plunge, the profit pool could reverse flow from devices back to substrates—not yet happening, but 2027 is a key observation window.
Upstream-Downstream Bargaining Power:
| Force | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Substrate vs. Device makers | Weak | Conductive substrate is highly standardized, multiple sources, IDMs continuously pressuring prices |
| Device vs. Automakers | Moderately weak | Very high switching cost after design-in, but top 5 customer concentration 60-80% |
| Automotive Epitaxy vs. Device makers | Medium | High customization, high certification barriers, switching cycle 12-18 months |
| Device vs. AI Data Center customers | Moderately strong | 800V HVDC is emerging market, limited suppliers, pricing power temporarily strong |
Is this business overall easy to make money? — Medium (improving, cycle bottom)
Value Trap Risk: Medium. Pure substrate players (Tianyue/Tianke) exhibit classic value trap—shipment growth but no profit growth or even losses. Sanan Optoelectronics' SiC still in investment phase (2025 Hunan Sanan SiC revenue only RMB 910 million), with LED main business dragging overall profitability.
| Company | Ticker | Chain Position | Share | Core Advantage | One-Line Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STMicroelectronics | STM | Device IDM | SiC devices ~35% (global #1) | Earliest and most comprehensive automotive certifications, deep ties with Tesla, Catania 8-inch €5B project | Absolute king in device segment, primary beneficiary of profit pool shift, consolidated gross margin recovered to 34.8% |
| Infineon | IFNNY | Device IDM | SiC devices ~20-25% | Leading CoolSiC trench gate technology, AI power orders exploding, raised full-year guidance | Full-stack SiC+GaN layout, gross margin ~41% highest in industry, most benefiting from AI power structure |
| onsemi | ON | IDM+substrate self-supply | SiC devices ~15-20% | Self-built substrate capacity (self-supply >50%), EliteSiC awarded by Geely/NIO | Exiting cycle bottom, but gross margin from 45%+ to 38.5%, waiting for utilization recovery |
| Tianyue Advanced | 688234 | Substrate | Shipments 27.6% (global #1) | 8-inch market share 51.3%, 12-inch liquid-phase first mover, already supplying Infineon/Bosch in volume | Global #1 in shipments but "volume for price" leads to losses; overseas high gross margin (36%) is key to profitability |
| BYD Semiconductor | Unlisted | China full-chain IDM | China SiC modules ~15-20% | Only domestic full-chain automotive IDM, self-supply + external supply, cost 30-50% lower than imports | Most certain Chinese beneficiary of SiC adoption wave |
| Silan Integration | 688469 | Device foundry | China SiC foundry ~10-15% | Largest independent SiC foundry in China, 8-inch MOSFET in volume production | Foundry leader with high revenue growth but gross margin only 5.5%, 2026 profitability inflection point to be verified |
| Tianke Heda | Unlisted | Substrate+epitaxy | Substrate shipments ~7% (global top 3) | Earliest industrialization in China, invested by CATL/Huawei Hubble | Gross margin turned negative (-20%), cumulative losses ~RMB 1.6B in recent two years, IPO raised RMB 2.78B "producing more, losing more" |
| Sanan Optoelectronics | 600703 | Full-chain IDM platform | SiC domestic ~5-10% | Full vertical integration, JV with ST on 8-inch | SiC still in investment phase, LED main business dragging overall losses |
| Hantian Chengcheng | 02726.HK | Epitaxy | Global epitaxy >30% | World's largest independent epitaxy maker, first 12-inch epitaxy, newly listed in HK | Absolute epitaxy leader but gross margin declining (44.7%→25.6%), relying on subsidies for profit |
| Wolfspeed | WOLF | Full-chain IDM (restructured) | Substrate 18% (halved from 34%) | SiC technology pioneer, 8-inch fab first-mover | Former leader mired in troubles, still loss-making after restructuring (gross margin -27%), hard to see turnaround short-term |
| Region | Policy Direction | Core Measures | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Strongly favorable | Big Fund Phase 3 RMB 344 billion + 15th Five-Year Special RMB 5 billion/year + local subsidies | Accelerating substrate/device local substitution |
| US | Favorable but fragmented | CHIPS Act Wolfspeed $750M grant (pending) + $700M tax credit (received); BIS export controls on SiC equipment to China | Benefits US domestic capacity, fully blocks China |
| EU | Strongly favorable | ST Catania €2B aid (total investment €5B) | European 8-inch full-chain autonomy |
| Japan | Strongly favorable | NEDO JPY 30.5 billion + METI JPY 129.4 billion (total ~$1.1B) | ROHM 8-inch achieved target 2 years early |
| South Korea | Favorable | KRW 500 billion national funding (~$340M), targeting self-sufficiency rate 10%→20% | Accelerating localization |
| Measure | Scope | Rate/Restriction | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Section 301 Existing Tariff | SiC doped wafers (HTS 3818.00.00.30) | 50% additional tariff | January 2025 |
| Section 301 New Investigation | Chinese-made semiconductors (incl. SiC substrates/devices) | Currently 0%, rising to undetermined rate in June 2027 | June 2027 (rate to be announced by May 2027 at latest) |
| BIS Equipment Controls | SiC/GaN ion implanters, annealing systems, epitaxy equipment | Requires license for export to China (presumption of denial) | April-July 2026 |
| BIS Device Controls | 1200V+ SiC MOSFETs | Requires license for export to China | July 2026 |
Source: USTR Federal Register, https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Issue_Areas/Enforcement/Section%20301/Semiconductor%20Section%20301%20FRN%20Final%20Action%2012-22-25%20for%20posting.pdf
China accounts for 53% of global substrate shipments, with overseas IDMs highly dependent (Chinese substrate prices only 30-50% of overseas), but the US/EU/Japan are accelerating "de-Chinaization" through subsidies + tariffs. In the short term, China's low-cost advantage in substrates is hard to replace, but if the Section 301 new tariff in June 2027 is significantly raised (market expects 25-100%), it will severely impact Chinese substrate exports to the US.
Source: ecoinvent database; European Commission CBAM (SiC not included in first batch of covered industries)
| Bullish Side | Bearish Side | Tracking Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Yole maintains 2024-2030 CAGR ~20%, EV 800V + AI dual drivers irreversible | Global EV sales -8% in 2026Q1; J.P. Morgan estimates AI only contributes $400-500M (~10% of TAM, 2028) | Global BEV quarterly sales (IEA), TrendForce SiC inverter penetration, Yole annual growth update |
Current Balance: Bullish side slightly ahead—AI is only a structural boost, not a volume disruptor, but EV 800V platform penetration is accelerating (2025 800V share ~15%→2026E ~20%); 2026Q1 EV sales -8% is a subsidy phase-out disturbance, full-year growth still maintainable at 15-20%.
| Bullish | Bearish | Tracking Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Inventory ~1–2 months (normal 3 months), automotive-grade near zero inventory, lead time >50 weeks | JPMorgan estimates 6-inch only ~$208 in early 2026; DigiTimes reports $200–300; current prices include hoarding/speculation premiums | 6-inch industrial-grade substrate spot price, quarterly ASP of Tianyue Advanced/Tianke Heda, channel inventory in days |
Current balance: Bulls slightly ahead — prices have indeed rebounded strongly from the bottom, but product stratification is severe (automotive tight/industrial loose). Industrial-grade $500–600 is already close to the incentive price of $650, leaving limited upside. If restocking demand fades, industrial-grade prices risk falling back to $400–500.
| Bullish | Bearish | Tracking Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| 8-inch area 1.78x, chip count +87%, theoretical single-chip cost reduction 35–50% | Wolfspeed Mohawk Valley never reached full utilization, directly leading to bankruptcy; global 8-inch yield <40%; Yole clearly indicates delayed transition | 8-inch substrate public quotes, Tianyue Advanced/Wolfspeed 8-inch shipment volume and yield disclosures |
Current balance: Bears dominate — the logic of 8-inch cost reduction has not yet been validated in mass production, and the transition cycle is longer than expected. However, Tianyue Advanced's 8-inch market share of 51.3% and yield of 60–70% provide grounds for cautious optimism.
| Scenario | Probability | Narrative | Industry Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.25 | Global EV growth remains lackluster (2026 <10%) + AI data center demand below JPMorgan baseline + Chinese substrate capacity not effectively cleared. 6-inch industrial-grade prices fall back to $350–450 | Substrate segment returns to full losses; second- and third-tier Chinese manufacturers shut down in bulk; device IDM gross margins compress below 30% |
| Baseline | 0.50 | EV growth ~15–20%, 800V ramps as expected; AI contributes ~5% of TAM; 8-inch yields improve at pace. 6-inch industrial-grade trades in $450–600 range | Chinese substrate leaders gradually improve via volume for price, tail-end exits accelerate; profits continue to concentrate with device IDMs; 8-inch cost reduction materializes in 2027–2028 |
| Bull | 0.25 | AI data center demand exceeds expectations (2028 >$600M) + 800V accelerates to >30% of BEVs by 2027 + substrate capacity expansion severely lags. 6-inch prices break $700, 8-inch >$1,200 | Full-chain profitability restored; 8-inch first-movers enjoy excess profits; Chinese substrate exports unconstrained and in frantic demand |
| Date | Event | Directional Impact | Related Controversy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | ST/Infineon/onsemi Q2 2026 earnings | SiC gross margin trend | D2 |
| 2026-09 | PCIM Asia 2026 (Shanghai) | 8-inch progress updates, industry pricing | D3 |
| 2026-10 | US midterm elections | China trade policy direction | D1/D2 |
| 2026-11 | China graphite export controls to US expire | SiC thermal field costs | D2 |
| 2026-12 | IEA Global EV Outlook annual update | EV production forecast revisions | D1 |
| 2027-01 | Wolfspeed FY2027 Q2 earnings | Mohawk Valley utilization | D3 |
| 2027-02 | Yole Power SiC 2027 report | Whether growth rate is further adjusted | D1 |
| 2027-03 | ST Catania 8-inch first production line trial | Global largest 8-inch SiC project milestone | D3 |
| 2027-06 | US Section 301 tariff final ruling on China | Tariff rates announced (market expects 25–100%) | D1/D2 |
Matrix Interpretation:
Special warning — device price downside risk: JPMorgan estimates automotive SiC MOS prices halve in two years ($6.5→$2.5). If this trend accelerates, even IDM leaders may struggle to maintain current gross margins. This is the most overlooked risk for investors in ST/Infineon/onsemi.
Beneficiary Stocks:
| Stock | Thesis |
|---|---|
| Infineon (IFNNY) | Full-stack SiC+GaN, CoolSiC technology lead, AI power orders surging (full-year guidance raised), gross margin ~41% industry high |
| STMicroelectronics (STM) | SiC device global #1 (~35%), Catania 8-inch €5B layout, deepest automotive qualification moat, consolidated gross margin recovering to 34.8% |
| onsemi (ON) | IDM model highest substrate self-supply (>50%), exiting cycle trough, SiC+AI dual inflection point |
| BYD Semiconductor (unlisted) | Only Chinese full-chain automotive SiC IDM, self-supply + external supply model, strongest cost competitiveness |
Avoid Stocks:
| Stock | Thesis |
|---|---|
| Pure-play second- & third-tier substrate makers | Price war far from bottom, volume-for-price unsustainable, industry consolidation underway |
| Tianke Heda (unlisted) | Gross margin -20%, accumulated losses ~1.6 billion RMB over past two years, IPO raising 2.78 billion RMB "produce more lose more" |
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) | Despite completing bankruptcy restructuring, still loss-making (gross margin -27%), market share steadily eroded by Chinese players |
Tianyue Advanced (688234) — needs differentiated view: Global #1 in 8-inch substrates (market share 51.3%), overseas gross margin 35.97%, only Chinese substrate name with a chance to break the "volume-for-price" trap. However, domestic business gross margin -6%, still under short-term pressure. Suited as a "8-inch option" rather than a core holding.
| Scenario | Biggest Beneficiary | Biggest Loser |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | Infineon (full product diversification + AI power defensiveness) | Tianyue Advanced (domestic losses widen), pure-play substrate makers (wholesale losses) |
| Baseline | Infineon, ST (device leaders, profit concentration) | Tianke Heda (persistent losses no improvement), second-/third-tier substrate makers (consolidation) |
| Bull | Tianyue Advanced (largest 8-inch leverage), ST (Catania at full utilization) | Wolfspeed (missing upside cycle) |
This report is based on public information and industry interviews and does not constitute investment advice. Industry cyclical judgment ≠ stock recommendation. Investors must make independent decisions based on their own risk preferences and portfolio structure.