Public Research Index

AI 景气第五年，垄断环节净利率创纪录，可国产龙头六成利润竟靠非经常损益撑起。

变了什么、为什么：过去两个月发生了三件事。其一，半年报兑现超预期——43 家上市券商 2026H1 归母净利润 1,553.70 亿元（+49.0%），创半年度纪录（Wind/每经统计）。其二，量能与杠杆同步降档——8 月 ADT 同比转负、9 月初降至 1.91 万亿，两融自 6 月末 3.02 万亿峰值回落至 2.…

A 20.9% CAGR masks a brutal divide: profits flow only to automotive-qualified specialists while consumer chips grow revenue without profit.

AI power demand nearly doubles by 2027 while PV and storage cores drown in oversupply—one market, two very different fates.

AI servers need 500+ inductors per unit, but PV demand is falling—why the real story is a structural upgrade, not yet an 800V inflection.

Safety crackdowns cut Jincheng inventories 45.9% YoY, but can a RMB 1,300 price spike outlast demand shrinking 1%–1.5% a year?

Record output and near-term inventory overhang cap prices, but LNG and data-center demand could tighten the market by 2027—unless supply elasticity caps the upside.

Growth is real, but profits flow only to patent-holding brands — why this booming category won't pay its manufacturers.

A structural substitution story, not a broad recovery: why vertically integrated 5-axis players win while valuations already sit at historical highs.

Edge SoC demand hits an inflection point, but AI glasses and robotics value traps are exposed—here's where the real pricing power lies.

报告日期：2026-08-13 ｜ 研究周期：12 个月 ｜ 行业定位：全球液体燃料产业链（布伦特/WTI/迪拜基准）

Polysilicon prices froze below full cost while antitrust probes killed coordinated cuts—here’s why capacity exits may not move the needle.

Advanced packaging hits 51% of revenue, but hyperscaler cash flow may cap the AI boom.

AI's $2.6B-per-drug problem meets its match: 20,000x screening now, but the valley of death still looms.

The AI supercycle hides a $400B memory bubble that could burst by 2027.

SiC substrate prices more than doubled from the trough, but the recovery is fragile as device ASPs keep falling and EV growth slows.

AI PCB value per rack jumps 233% in one generation, but the 71% CAGR faces downgrade risk as capacity races ahead.

Divergence at work: baijiu total volume down 74% from 2016 peak, but leaders' share expands — the great split.

China’s coal demand peaked in 2024 — supply constraints, not demand, now set the price floor.

AI服务器用量10倍跃升，高端MLCC结构性短缺与资本开支隐忧并存

Bitcoin miners lose $16k per coin at $80k cash cost, ETF inflow spike fails to reverse structural pressure.

Global EV sales keep climbing, but battery overcapacity is shifting profits from cell makers to raw materials suppliers.

AI Agent渗透率仅3.3%，SaaS增长质量分化加剧，平台护城河直面历史考验

3D NAND路线图下修，真空泵需求四重拐点仍推动增长

AI大芯片的物理必然已定，但玻璃基板商业化时间线后移，估值已透支。

铝产能天花板仅剩8万吨，海外单月减产266万吨，能源转型缺口推动利润再分配

Copper deficit delayed past 2028 as mining thrives while smelting sinks into deep losses.

净息差1.40%历史低位，降幅趋缓却未确认见底，零售不良滞后上行成最大风险

出货量高估需求4倍，人形机器人商业化需先跨越物理可靠性鸿沟

面板控产承诺遇裂口，55寸价格转跌，下行周期开启

自免药行业冰火两重天：IL-4Rα/IL-23爆发百亿增量，TNF-α/JAK面临专利悬崖与价格战

游戏市场创下五年来最强增长，但多数中小工作室陷入“增收不增利”的景气幻觉

82个EGFR资产内卷，TIGIT仍无获批药——500亿研发等待III期揭晓

Supply chain profits diverge sharply as C919 ramps—engine and materials win, airframe margins stay thin.

利润55%靠股市β，保险行业景气背后隐藏价值陷阱风险

锗价高悬但中国百吨产能闲置，卫星需求狂飙能否填平替代暗线？

AI服务器引爆聚合物钽电容短缺，但MLCC替代和钽矿修复正压缩定价权窗口

AI级保偏光纤供不应求，传统军用价跌，行业结构性拐点已至

2026年浸没冷却液短缺31%：3M退出余波未平，国产扩产能否填补？

AI封装材料紧缺涨价20%，传统塑封料却产能过剩——两极化下的布局时机

高端TLVR电感供不应求，国产厂商AI业务占比不足5%估值已透支

AI数据中心催生母线槽16%年增长，但超半数项目延期与铜价侵蚀成隐忧

ABF膜全球垄断98%，AI芯片需求暴增60倍，供需缺口持续至2028，涨价趋势却被管理层“克制”约束。

AI服务器引爆SPS结构性紧缺，但英飞凌超级工厂投产或成供需最大转折点

数据中心驱动中压开关结构性拐点，高端产品趋紧低端过剩分化加剧

AI集群互联价值量飙升背后，2027年供需拐点与产能过剩已悄然逼近

AI驱动柴发单位需求跃升40%，全球供给瓶颈史无前例，拐点已至

SiC产能过剩有多严重？功率半导体五年162亿美元增量给出答案。

需求暴涨但高端泵缺货，AI液冷核心部件面临24个月供不应求拐点

三重杠杆驱动液冷快接头5年CAGR 36%，但ASP年降5%成隐忧

AI军备竞赛引爆光引擎需求，InP衬底扩产瓶颈酿20年最剧烈供需错配

AI数据中心光纤需求爆发，预制棒产能瓶颈下供需缺口加速扩大

AI数据中心与新能源车双轮驱动GaN爆发，但2027年供需拐点前中国产能过剩与ASP下滑博弈加剧

全球镓过剩淤积中国，西方却面临短缺——双轨格局下的投资拐点

锂电铜箔供需拐点渐近，加工费底部修复通道开启，但出清与政策逆风仍在途中

压延铜箔供需拐点2028年将至，高端HVLP极度紧缺但中低端过剩风险加剧

高端光刻胶三年翻倍，日本垄断九成，国产自给仅剩2%拐点未至

AI数据中心引爆光纤需求，但供给认证壁垒锁死弹性，供需缺口或持续紧张。

AI散热元年已至，但金刚石铜量产仍卡在样品送检阶段

锡的稀缺性故事遭高价反噬：2026年短暂过剩，但长期缺口未消

A military strike on Qatar has knocked out 30% of global helium supply, setting up a multi-year structural deficit.

AI光模块狂飙中，InP每比特用量已断崖下跌87.5%，供需拐点提前到来

AI服务器机柜标配引爆需求，高端超级电容活性炭供需缺口持续扩大

铟价暴涨竟是投机囤货？2027年供需缺口或反转，硅光替代暗藏最大变数

锂电需求年增25%价格却十年最低，三重拐点下龙头与二线成本差拉大至25%

Record H1 profit, but copper priced at its 100th percentile and 168,400t of cobalt locked behind quota gates — the analyst argues CMOC's quality still isn't cheap.

Earnings up 39.5%, target prices halved: why Meitu's collapsed multiple, not its results, is the real debate.

The turnaround is real, but at $90 Intel's price embeds an $85–163 billion foundry option still awaiting its first anchor customer.

AI orders hit a record 470MW, but a March 2027 bond put and RMB 10 billion capex make financing the real test.

Stock implies profits shrinking 60% forever, yet H1 operating profit grew 13% — why the market may be wrong.

Priced for perpetual earnings decline at 8.9–9.7x, Tencent trades near the bear case even as trailing Non-IFRS profit grows 10%.

Headline profit up 46%, recurring profit down 14%: the one-off gain masking PROYA's real earnings slide.

New standard inflection is real and quality is first-tier — but at 51x 2026E PE with -14% margin of safety, why this analyst says the good news is already priced.

Oncology down 35%, CNS up 22%: why 0.4x book value still offers no margin of safety

Tungsten prices have nearly halved, yet consensus still forecasts higher H2 profit—why we see 25%-56% downside.

Record orders meet a 34% drawdown: why the sell-off has pushed ASMPT below even the street's most bearish target.

A 7x P/E, 7% yield, down 33%—is the market wrong to price this aluminum leader at a cycle top?

Earnings center has stepped up to ~15% ROE, yet the market still prices GF at 1.23x PB—an expectation gap of 26-46% awaiting the Q3 verdict.

The market values its Hang Lung Properties stake alone above the entire company—tenant sales up 17% and a 7% yield meet an 83.5% NAV discount.

Peak earnings, falling volumes, yet analysts still bullish: the report prices East Money fair at RMB 17.0–19.7 with zero margin of safety.

Record profit yet priced for a bear-market trough: 0.61x PB implies a perpetual ROE below Galaxy's 2023 low.

7月营收再创新高、盈利连超预期，报告却逆势下调评级至中性——414美元的台积电还剩多少安全边际？

Inflection confirmed but odds mediocre: at RMB 167.92, quality Mindray is priced fairly—why the report says wait for RMB 165 or Q3 data.

股价回撤36%后，机构把估值判断从“高估”改为“合理偏低”：现价隐含的2027年利润较一致预期折让约23%。

The AI optical inflection is real, but at CNY 280 the market has already priced the entire 2030 bull case.

Record H1 profit, 0 sell ratings—yet this report goes contrarian, arguing the price already embeds more than any analyst forecast.

Below-book price already bakes in a 2027 earnings retreat—why a 13% mispricing still isn't enough to turn bullish.

Great company, full price: with ex-non-recurring growth already matching what's priced in, why this analyst stays neutral at RMB 227.

Record profits and a near-zero-gearing balance sheet, yet the stock already prices USD 12,000+ copper — why this top analyst downgraded to Neutral.

AI profit inflection confirmed, yet a RMB1.1-4.5 billion financing gap makes dilution the real gate for rerating.

Record H1 earnings meet a cycle peak warning: GigaDevice trades at a deceptive 34.9x trailing PE — normalized 79–126x leaves no margin of safety.

The AI CCL inflection is real—130% profit growth confirmed—but at RMB 144 the stock already embeds consensus, leaving 13% downside to fair value.

A contrarian Neutral: quality proven, but with the price already discounting sell-side consensus by 40%, the Q3 gross margin inflection is the only remaining edge.

The stock already sits at the base case—consensus is 29% too high, and two Q4 binary events decide everything next.

Priced as a dying integrator at 0.70x EV/Sales with 33.5% of its cap in net cash—but its first-ever half-year profit hinges on add-backs, and contract liabilities just fell 61%.

A best-in-class cost position the market already paid for: why we stand alone against 20 bullish analysts on EQT.

Stock is 20% above fair value: real assets, but 65x implied ex-one-off earnings leaves no margin of safety.

All 29 sell-side ratings are Buy, yet this research says the No.1 rice wine maker's stock is 12–20% overvalued with Q2 losses hiding behind headline profit.

The Red Sea dividend that powers T.S. Lines' record earnings is already ending — a debt-free, cash-rich carrier the market prices at a listing-high 1.32x P/B leaves no margin of safety.

H-shares price in only ~15x ex-cash on 2027 consensus—yet AI cooling is already lifting industrial revenue to 26.2% of sales.

Cycle-bottom float glass meets a 52.6%-margin auto glass spin-off catalyst—yet the market already prices both, leaving no margin of safety.

A real fundamental inflection, but with zero expectation gap left — 68% of the price rides on growth, so why this contrarian Neutral still says don't chase.

A monopoly cash cow priced at zero growth: deposits parked at the controlling shareholder's affiliate cap the upside until governance risk clears.

Net cash covers 58% of market cap, yet the market prices a permanent earnings collapse—can Q3 sell-through prove it wrong?

Priced at its resource NAV, with all three mines delayed while consensus still assumes growth—the downgrade cycle may just be starting.

Market prices ANTA's core business at just 7.2x earnings as if in permanent decline—yet H1 revenue hit a record and free cash flow jumped 54%.

茶饮首超水成第一大品类，市场却只按下半年负增长定价，预期差有多大？

Record profits but barely any cash: why this copper smelter trades 19% above fair value.

Record 2026H1 profits and a thermal-driven AI second curve—but at 13.3x 2027E earnings, only 1% margin of safety remains.

PV margins at a four-year low, the stock down 26% — now one binary US tariff ruling decides a +39% or -36% move.

The cyclical rebound is real—but with consensus already 15–25% too optimistic and the stock trading above fair value, the odds now favor waiting, not chasing.

Great fundamentals, but at RMB 205 the base case is fully priced — and an underappreciated antitrust tail skews the odds downward.

出口重启与硫磺回落打开H2修复窗口，但现价已足额定价，赔率对称、只中性不追买

The market prices Expand Energy near $2.9 gas, yet the EIA says $3.44 — and downside leverage outweighs upside.

Revenue doubled and losses narrowed, yet cash flow still runs negative — UBTECH trades 33% below even the most bearish target, but four make-or-break catalysts loom within 12 months.

A 13% pullback meets record margins: why the odds just turned positive despite a lower target price.

Undervalued only if prices hold: why Zijin's 13% margin of safety rests on a gold-and-copper plateau assumption.

First-ever TapTap revenue decline meets zero-growth pricing—recurring profit +7.4% and HKD 3.79bn net cash the market isn't charging for.

Pop Mart's overseas engine stalls and profits are set to fall 19%—yet the market still prices in a growth option premium.

Kuaishou trades at 3.7x core earnings with 54% net cash, but the real bet is whether Kling's option outweighs a decelerating platform.

Edge AI leader’s 2026 profit surge is mostly memory-cycle gains—and even a soft landing means peak earnings halve by 2027.

Emotional sell-off masks Samsung's structural HBM4 ramp and $200B Broadcom catalyst at 4.6x PE

HBM moat intact at 4.9x P/E – market panic mispricing cycle risk for structural growth.

DRAM cycle nears peak, yet ChangXin's valuation implies 63% downside—extreme overpricing in a fading super cycle.

The RMB 5.18bn fine is behind it—ex-cash, the market pays just 9.4x for inbound-tourism growth.

Down 69% from peak but AI-CCL demand surged 207% profit – market prices zero growth amid structural inflection

75 RMB implies 30% premium to consensus 2028E earnings, but core profit is only 1B – 36% downside.

FY2025 turned profitable, but Q1 revenue growth plunged to 6% and a controlling shareholder sold $100mn – at 72x P/E, risk-reward is tilted.

Leshi at 16x PE seems cheap, but OCF < net profit and ROE crashed from 68% to 19% — read why.

Structural narrative meets cyclical reality: record margins and AI buzz face price warnings and massive capacity expansion.

Net cash covers 65% of market cap, but the clinic cash burn clock is ticking—can revenue growth outpace the drain?

Earnings smashed records but ASP growth halved – SCA structural boost vs. peak cycle valuation trap.

Jensen Huang refutes two bear cases: Rubin Ultra alive, Anthropic returns to NVIDIA from ASIC, revenue accelerating.

利润连降两季却获30家买入，中航光电的拥挤交易风险值得警惕

振华科技56.9元隐含58%增长期权，零增长仅值23元，V型复苏赌注有多大？

深科技利润增35%却现金流骤降83%，66倍PE已透支2027年乐观预期。

优质电子陶瓷龙头，96倍PE下安全边际为负，好公司为何不能追高？

立讯精密AI铜连接拐点已至，但80%估值靠增长期权撑起

看空评级下，宝光股份现价透支2-3年成长，81%市值靠增长期权撑

扣非净利骤降45%、创始人减持套现，商用车AI龙头的长期逻辑还稳吗？

海外毛利占八成，现金却难汇回：西部水泥转型背后的“纸面富贵

内蒙项目验证周期扩张，市场预期盈利低估两成，宝丰能源十倍市盈率的估值迷局

净现金占股价七成，可采储量却不足十年——首钢资源是安全垫还是价值陷阱？

上半年净利已超全年一致预期，现价PE仅7倍，预期差显著

金铜牛市股价反折价，紫金矿业安全边际消失后催化决定方向

股价隐含布伦特仅68美元，较现货折价19%，5.7%股息率提供安全垫

The market prices Yancoal at USD 119/t coal — 17% below spot — despite a cost moat and 53% upside from Kestrel.

概念证伪后估值仍处85%分位，增长期权占市值八成安全边际为负

母线迎数据中心拐点，焊带储能拖累盈利，现价99%是增长期权

英伟达液冷板已小批量供货，但AI营收仅3%——成长溢价能否兑现？

46倍PE里75%是AI增长期权，元力股份的安全边际在哪里？

战略稀缺性与价值毁灭并行：中芯国际96%股价靠增长期权，自由现金流三年吞噬千亿

一支好质地与极贵估值的矛盾体：澳弘电子现价透支三年增长，安全边际达-47%

单季利润超全年，股价却已透支商品红利近两倍，安全边际为负。

GaN龙头中国法院双胜股价反跌19%，毛利率转正含5ppt拨回，安全边际仍为负

增收不增利持续恶化，中兴通讯“被动高PE”背后盈利拐点未现